Meanwhile, there’s a South America Heat Wave going on – there may be some 48 C readings (120 F!) in the northern and central parts of the continent
A tropical or subtropical depression or tropical storm (Ophelia) will develop off the Carolina coast in the next 48 hrs. The main impact will be rain and wind for the eastern Carolinas. Depending on the track, the gradient of rain could be very tight, from a whole bunch to almost none over our area of the Piedmont…
Winds have started to pick up throughout today and will remain gusty through the weekend. We’ll see about the rains Friday night through Saturday.
And the European model has changed its mind in a big way for my place. 2 days ago, it said .02 inches, today it thinks near 3. The GFS is holding steady at closer to 2.
A welcome change.
Every update brings the storm closer to me. Last night, the center was expected to be about 80 miles away at the closest and track up the Delmarva. Now it’s forecast to track west of the bay, and be about 20.
Rain chances for my locale are diminishing to almost 0
So this is expected to take a sharp right turn around southern PA, right?
If not, it’s heading right for me.
Sub-Tropical Storm Ophelia (it’s pretty much at Tropical Storm strength) is ramping up and heading towards NC. Northeasterly winds sustained around 15-25mph most of the day Saturday and any rains that could reach my locale will be some time Saturday.
Yes and no.
Yes, the storm is going to continue its eastward turn.
No, once it makes it to PA, it’s forecast to no longer be a tropical depression. Basically, it won’t be Ophelia any longer, just a regular ol’ storm. The National Hurricane Center will stop giving updates and making maps. It will still be a big storm, it just won’t have a name.
That being said, it will be a big storm, so there will be wind and rain.
I was really counting on us getting some rain this weekend.
Based on Saturday’s latest forecast, Looks like we will get some rains in the Charlotte Saturday.
Looks like less than an inch of rain for upstate NY.
From Tropical Weather
Note - this is only based on what will happen while it has a name, basically thru Sunday.
Not quite a drought buster but it looks like it’ll put a decent dent in your drought…
Yah, I’m lookin forward to the model updates later
5pm Update: Tropical Storm Ophelia packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm will strike the NC Coast tomorrow, unleashing flooding rain, strong winds, storm surge and dangerous seas.
Eegads. That spun up quick. I think it was still Invest 16 this morning
The GEFS Ensembles “love” a solution where Ophelia spins around off the mid-Atlantic coast for 10 days.
One run has it loop back into NC and back up the coast again
All the models are in better agreement for my area - 2’’ to 4’’, and keeping the storm to my east, which is good, but every update moves it to the west, which would be very bad if it was stronger. Either way, I get wind and rain, and plenty of it, tonight and tomorrow.
This morning was partly cloudy (maybe 30% cloud cover) and we’ve been 100% overcast for a couple hours now. Rain down in Richmond, maybe 70 miles away.
Rain has started about 30 minutes ago. Barometer is at 30.03, curious what it will be Sunday